Key Bitcoin Levels To Watch

Since my last technical review of Bitcoin

BTC
in March 2018 “A Technical Lesson In Bitcoin” the interest and acceptance of cryptocurrencies have expanded dramatically. This has resulted in several technical questions about whether some of my regular methods of analysis are of use in determining where Bitcoin is going.

In 2018 I analyzed the NYSE Bitcoin Index ($NYXBT) as I was stimulated in part after reading a projection in March 2018 that it would rise from around $8,500 to $30,000 by the end of 2018. The extreme nature of this projection I felt required more research.

I have found pivot analysis to be a useful tool when applied to a wide range of financial markets. It provides important input for my analysis of both the long and short-term trends. In the past, I have written about yearly, quarterly and monthly pivot analysis.

The pivot values are derived from this formula and are based on the prior time periods. For example, the yearly pivots for 2022 are based on the high, low and closing levels in 2021. Monthly pivots are determined by the prior month’s price history.

On a simplistic level if prices are above the pivot it indicates a positive trend with targets at the R1 and R2 resistance levels. If prices close below the pivot it indicates a negative trend with potential targets at the S1 and S2 levels. The negative trend is only reversed by a move back above the pivot.

Let’s look at the 2018 analysis in terms of yearly pivots as $NYXBT closed below the 2018 yearly pivot at 11,368 the week ending January 22, 2018, point b. This was a negative sign for the major trend.

In 2018, my analysis indicated a key…