- Doug Kass’s surprises for 2023 highlight a slate of wide-ranging possibilities.
- Stocks could defy the masses, rallying in the first half of 2022.
- Gold could trade up to $3,000 per ounce.
- Bitcoin could fall to $5,000.
- Tesla shares could drop below $80, but Twitter’s valuation could skyrocket.
Hedge fund manager Doug Kass has been navigating the stock market since the 1970s, so his annual “surprises” for the coming year should be required reading for investors. The self-described contrarian with a calculator is known for bold projections, and this year’s list of surprises doesn’t disappoint.
A stock market rally until June? A big run higher in gold? A reckoning for Bitcoin? A Tesla tumble? Those are some of Kass’s most intriguing surprises for 2022. Let’s dig in!
Stocks could rally, then fall
Kass is most comfortable swimming upstream. His annual list of surprises highlights possibilities underappreciated by Wall Street and Main Street investors.
One such possibility is that stocks will increase during the first six months of 2023 before turning lower in the year’s second half. That would be unexpected. Most anticipate declining earnings and recession will make for a rocky performance in the year’s first half, with better returns into year’s end.
Certainly, corporate margins are under pressure from stubbornly high inflation, and a recession would be bad news for revenue. Yet, perhaps, too many have positioned for that outcome, making it more likely that stocks look beyond short-term worries and rally through June. Kass writes, “I have learned over the course of my investing career…How wrong conventional wisdom can consistently be.”
Instead, Kass thinks stocks could be about to head higher as inflation falls and the Federal Reserve pauses its hawkish interest rate policy.
“While I am not a fan of calendar/seasonal-based forecasts, I would point out that the first three months of a pre-election year have been lower only once in the last seven decades. Since…
