Ethereum&#8217;s Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Review

Previous Ethereum Elliott Wave Analyses

In my previous update, see here, I reviewed the shorter-term Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)-count for Ethereum (ETHUSD). I found,

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“The Bullish count is preferred if ETH can stay above ~$1050 and rally back above $1250. However, if ETH closes below $1050, it opens up the door to $900, and from there, ~$850 is the most likely ideal downside target. ”

ETH did not stay above $1050 and dropped to $997. It then rallied back to $1275 but never closed for the day above $1250 and, as such, fell back to $1005 yesterday. It is now trading at around the $1130s. Thus, it failed to rally and stay above $1250 but has found buyers at the $1000 level each time. Ethereum is now stuck between a rock and a hard place: see here.

However, is it possible ETH can still go lower? The weekly chart I last shared in May, see here, has been updated. The ideal path pointed to a low in the $1500+/-100 zone, but the final waves decided to subdivide/extend. As always, all we can do is “anticipate the ideal path,” then we “monitor to see if price follows it or not,” and if not, then we must “adjust.” Why? Because we are dealing with a stochastic, probabilist environment and not something that is set in stone.

Figure 1. Ethereum weekly chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

$870 Cannot Be Excluded Just Yet

Given ETH already dropped to $880 on June 18, it is certainly possible for the cryptocurrency to have bottomed already. The classic, ideal, standard c=a extension (See Figure 1 above) targets $870. But, the cryptocurrency will have to close above that pesky $1250 level without falling back below $1000 to suggest the low is indeed in place, and the run to ~$10K has begun.