Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies during a House Committee on Financial Services hearing on the Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, Thursday, May 12, 2022 on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Graeme Jennings/Pool photo via AP)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Investors looking for clues on whether bitcoin’s recovery from 17-month lows reached last week is long-lasting may want to look at what traditional markets are saying.
The leading cryptocurrency has rebounded after falling to $25,338 on May 12 and was last seen trading above $30,000. While the double-digit bounce is encouraging, it may be too early to say the worst is behind us. The recent sudden trend change in the longer duration Treasury yield and the Japanese yen suggest recession in the US, a risk-off economic condition.
Recessions, consecutive quarterly contractions in the gross domestic product, are bearish for growth-sensitive assets like stocks, industrial metals and risky assets like bitcoin. They are typically bullish for Treasuries (government bonds) and the Japanese yen. Government bonds and currencies of nations like Japan with low-interest rates, a strong net foreign asset position, and deep and liquid financial markets are considered safe havens.
While the crypto community considers bitcoin as digital gold, the cryptocurrency tends to move more or less in line with technology stocks. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the tech-heavy Wall Street index Nasdaq recently rose to a record 0.82.
Bitcoin remains highly correlated with tech stocks
Arcane Research
The 10-year US Treasury yield has turned lower of late, having risen by 150 basis points to 3.20% in the two months to May 9. The benchmark yield was seen at 2.80% at press time, according to charting platform TradingView.
The turnaround comes even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to accelerate monetary tightening and raise interest rates by 50 basis points at upcoming…
